日本物理学家成功预测电影票房-凯发k8官网

日本物理学家成功预测电影票房
文章来源:未知 文章作者:enread 发布时间:2012-06-18 06:28 字体: [ ] 
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a group of japanese scientists have surprised themselves by being able to predict the success or failure of blockbuster movies at the box office using a set of mathematical models. the researchers, publishing their study june 15, in the institute of physics and german physical society's new journal of physics, used the effects of 1 and word-of-mouth communication to create a model that turned out to be successful in predicting how each movie fared once it hit the silver screen.

the only data the researchers needed to put into the model were the daily advertisement costs of 25 movies that appeared in japanese cinemas.

their model was originally designed to predict how word-of-mouth communication spread over social networks, applying it to conversations about movies in particular, which was a success; however, they also found that when they 2 their predictions with the actual revenue of the films, they were very similar.

they now intend to apply their model to other commercial markets, such as online music, food snacks, noodle cups, soft drinks and local events.

the researchers, from tottori university, used their model to calculate the likelihood of an individual going to watch a movie in a japanese cinema over a period ranging from 60 days prior to the movie's opening date to 100 days after it had opened.

recognising that word-of-mouth communication, as well as advertising, has a profound effect on whether a person goes to see a movie or not, whether this is talking about it to friends (direct communication) or overhearing a conversation about it in a café (indirect communication), the researchers accounted for this in their calculations.

the daily number of blog postings for each of the 25 films was also collected from the internet as a means of comparison for the researchers' calculations.

lead author of the study, professor akira ishii, said: "if a person is reading and commenting on a friend's blog, we consider this as direct communication. if a person happens to come across a blog through a series of web pages and links, we consider this indirect communication."

the result was a set of graphs outlining a person's intent on watching movies such as the da vinci code, pirates of the caribbean: at world's end, spider-man 3, transformers and avatar, based on the daily amount of money spent on advertising the film and word-of-mouth.

when overlaid on the actual revenue from these movies whilst screened in the cinema, they appeared to match very well, meaning the calculations could provide a fairly good prediction of how successful a movie could be even before it is released.



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1 1zjzi3     
n.广告业;广告活动 a.广告的;广告业务的
参考例句:
  • can you give me any advice on getting into advertising? 你能指点我如何涉足广告业吗?
  • the advertising campaign is aimed primarily at young people. 这个广告宣传运动主要是针对年轻人的。
2 f19155784c00c0c252a8b4dba353c5b8     
_adj.重叠的v.部分重叠( overlap的过去式和过去分词 );(物体)部份重叠;交叠;(时间上)部份重叠
参考例句:
  • his visit and mine overlapped. 他的访问期与我的访问期有几天重叠。 来自《现代汉英综合大词典》
  • our visits to the town overlapped. 我们彼此都恰巧到那小城观光。 来自辞典例句
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